AE4cast · May 2026 · Season Results

AI-Integrated Crop Yield Forecasting
Corn & Soybeans — by AE4cast

Combining AI weather modeling, crop agronomy, and econometric analysis to deliver the most accurate daily yield signals — with minimum systematic bias. Validated across 26 years of corn and soybean backtesting (2000–2025).

3.13 Corn MAE bu/ac
25% Better than USDA Aug
1.50 Soy MAE bu/ac
21% Better than USDA Aug

Backtest Performance — AE4cast vs. Alternatives

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Corn

May 15 – Aug 31 · 2000–2025
3.13 AE4cast MAE
bu/ac
83% Beats USDA
2020–2025
26 yrs Backtest
period
Mean Absolute Error — lower is better (bu/ac)
AE4cast (same day)
3.13
USDA Aug WASDE
4.20

Both evaluated on the same day (~Aug 12, USDA WASDE release date) — same information set, no timing advantage.

Period breakdown — same-day as USDA Aug WASDE (2000–2025)
Period AE4cast MAE USDA Aug MAE
2000–2004 3.63 5.42
2005–2009 3.16 4.10
2010–2014 2.74 5.24
2015–2019 4.70 2.40
2020–2025 1.72 3.88
2000–2025 3.13 4.20
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Soybeans

May 15 – Sep 30 · 2000–2025
1.50 AE4cast MAE
bu/ac
83% Beats USDA
2020–2025
26 yrs Backtest
period
Mean Absolute Error — lower is better (bu/ac)
AE4cast (same day)
1.50
USDA Aug WASDE
1.89

Both evaluated on the exact day of USDA's August WASDE release (~Aug 12) — same information set, no timing advantage. AE4cast's 1.50 bu/ac MAE matches USDA September accuracy, delivered a full month earlier.

Period breakdown — same-day as USDA Aug WASDE (2000–2025)
Period AE4cast MAE USDA Aug MAE
2000–2004 1.91 2.72
2005–2009 1.91 2.20
2010–2014 1.42 1.70
2015–2019 1.46 1.26
2020–2025 0.91 1.62
2000–2025 1.50 1.89

AE4cast Model System — AI Integrated at Every Step

Yield forecasting requires more than weather. AE4cast integrates AI across the full pipeline: weather trajectories, crop physiology, land classification, and econometric trend modeling — each step feeding into the next.

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AI Weather Engine
Upgraded to a state-of-the-art AI foundation weather model generating 10-day ensemble trajectories at high resolution. Replaces single-trajectory autoregressive forecasts — more probabilistic information per day, calibrated against ERA5 reanalysis.
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Crop Agronomy & Stress Model
Physics-informed yield response functions translate weather into crop impact: growing degree day accumulation, heat unit thresholds, and water deficit. Updated parameter estimates for 2026 using 40+ years of county-level data.
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AI Crop Land Classification
Satellite imagery processed through AI classification models to identify crop type and active planting boundaries at county resolution. More accurate spatial area weights improve county-to-national aggregation — a key source of competitor error.
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Econometric Trend Integration
Separates structural yield trends (technology, genetics, management) from weather-driven deviations. This econometric layer is the source of AE4cast's minimum-bias advantage — weather-only models systematically under- or over-shoot as yields trend upward.

Why AE4cast Gives Traders an Edge

Earlier Price Signals
Daily updates from May 15 give you 3–4 months of directional signal before USDA's August crop report — the market-moving event every grain trader watches.
Minimum Systematic Bias
Integrating econometric trend modeling prevents the systematic over- or under-shooting that afflicts weather-only models. AE4cast's bias of +0.24 bu/ac over 26 corn years vs. structural uptrends of ~2 bu/ac/yr.
Quantified Accuracy Edge
AE4cast's 3.13 bu/ac corn MAE vs. USDA's 4.20 bu/ac on the same day means a structurally narrower surprise band around August WASDE revisions — directly tradeable information.
Two-Crop Coverage
Simultaneous corn and soy signals across county, state, and national levels support crush margin trading, CBOT spread strategies, and cross-commodity positioning.

Data Availability — 2026 Season

Corn May 15 – Aug 31 109 daily forecasts/season · County, state, national · Delivery: API + CSV
Backtest history: 2000–2025 (26 years)
Soybeans May 15 – Sep 30 139 daily forecasts/season · County, state, national · Delivery: API + CSV
Backtest history: 2000–2025 (26 years)

Contact: info@ae4cast.com

Backtest methodology
Corn: daily county-level AE4cast model runs (2000–2025), area-weighted to national using AI-classified crop area weights. Accuracy measured on the same day as each year's USDA August WASDE release (~Aug 8–14). Benchmark: USDA NASS final national corn yield.

Soybeans: daily county-level AE4cast model runs (2000–2025), area-weighted to national using AI-classified crop area weights. Accuracy measured on the same day as each year's USDA August WASDE release (~Aug 8–14) — same information set, no timing advantage. Benchmark: USDA NASS final national soybean yield.
Data sources & attribution
Weather inputs: Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2000–2025. Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use that may be made of the Copernicus information or data it contains.

AI weather component uses an open-source foundation model (MIT License). Use does not imply endorsement by the model's developer.

Yield benchmarks: USDA NASS final national corn and soybean yield estimates (public domain).

Disclaimer: Past backtest accuracy does not guarantee future forecast performance. Yield forecasts are probabilistic model outputs intended for informational use only and do not constitute investment advice. AE4cast is not a registered investment advisor. All trading decisions are the sole responsibility of the user.